Paper Harvest Report

Date range: April 24, 2026

7 top-tier papers selected out of 93 total publications

Today’s Highlights

A Nature Geoscience study reveals that two centuries of human modifications—dredging and land reclamation—have amplified tidal ranges in 25 estuaries worldwide far more than sea-level rise, with the biggest changes occurring over 100 km inland. Meanwhile, a GRL study finds that human forecasters-in-the-loop still outperform machine learning models in real-time flood forecasting, even when ML uses observed forcings and the operational system relies on biased weather forecasts. Climate projections for the Tibetan Plateau show intensifying atmospheric water cycling that will strengthen hydrological connections to the Yellow River basin.

Today’s Highlights
Top-Tier Journal Papers
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1. Papers by journal
Filtering Criteria

Top-Tier Journal Papers

Human footprint on estuarine tidal hydrodynamics

Authors: Joris G. W. Beemster, Stefan A. Talke, Dirk S. Van Maren, Nathalie Giloy, Anna Wünsche, Wei Zhang et al.

Journal: Nature Geoscience · DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01969-4

Matched topics: river, flood, climate change

Natural estuarine morphology exerts strong control over tidal propagation. Human activities, such as dredging and land reclamation, modify the natural geometry, altering tidal dynamics and the ecosystems linked to them. Here we analyse changes in tidal dynamics, specifically the amplitude and propagation of tides, over decadal to centennial timescales, using archival maps, hydrographic surveys, tide gauge records and modern records from 25 estuaries worldwide, spanning the coast to their landward boundaries. Over the past two centuries, local interventions have typically amplified tidal ranges, accelerated tidal propagation and shifted tidal duration asymmetry. The most pronounced changes occurred far inland, often more than 100 km from the coast. Land reclamation and channel deepening are the most widespread and impactful interventions, affecting nearly all systems studied. The magnitude and inland location of maximum changes point to local human activities as the dominant drivers, exceeding the influence of long-term processes such as sea-level rise and natural subsidence and demonstrating that anthropogenic modifications have historically had the larger influence on estuarine water levels. Recognizing this human footprint opens opportunities for targeted local management strategies to reverse past changes, reduce flood risk and build resilience to climate change.

The Value of Forecasters‐in‐the‐Loop in Real‐Time Flood Forecasting in the Age of Machine Learning

Authors: Vinh Ngoc Tran, Donghui Xu, Phong Le, Jongho Kim, Tam Van Nguyen, Giang Tien Nguyen et al.

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters · DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118317

Matched topics: river, flood

Machine learning (ML) applications in hydrological forecasting are increasingly prevalent and show great potential. However, many previous studies have only evaluated performance through reanalysis or retrospective simulations compared to simplified baselines. This study provides the first assessment of ML performance against actual operational forecasting systems operated by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), which combines the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) with forecasters‐in‐the‐loop. Results demonstrate that forecasters‐in‐the‐loop systems consistently outperform ML models in both general forecasts and flood alerting across lead times up to 96 hr, even when ML models use observed forcings, while CNRFC operational process relies on biased weather forecasts. Our analysis reveals that forecaster expertise maintains forecast reliability despite inaccurate precipitation inputs, with human‐guided systems showing superior performance degradation characteristics at extended lead times. These findings highlight the irreplaceable value of human expertise in operational forecasting and caution against overstating current ML capabilities in real‐world applications.

Future Changes in the Atmospheric Water Cycle Over the Tibetan Plateau

Authors: Yu Zhang, Chi Zhang, Mingxiang Yang, Deyu Zhong

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters · DOI: 10.1029/2026gl121860

Matched topics: river

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) atmospheric water cycle (TPAWC), involving moisture sources, transport, and sinks with the TP precipitation and evaporation, faces unclear changes under global warming. This study projects TPAWC changes under two Shared Socio‐economic Pathways scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using Lagrangian moisture tracking. Results reveal significant TPAWC enhancement, particularly under SSP585. Strengthened moisture transport and evaporation from external moisture sources contribute precipitation trends of 1–4 mm a⁻² to the TP’s southern exorheic basins, accounting for over 60% of total precipitation increases. Enhanced TP evaporation contributes >40% to precipitation increases in the TP’s northeastern endorheic basins and drives 0.3–0.4 mm a⁻² trends for external Yellow and Huaihe basins, representing approximately 40% of external Yellow River precipitation increases. These findings demonstrate that TPAWC intensification strengthens hydrological connections between the TP and surrounding basins, highlighting the importance of an atmosphere‐land perspective for projecting future water availability.

Interacting Effects of Sea‐Level Rise and Ocean Warming Reshape Thermal Environments on a Coral Reef

Authors: Justin S. Rogers, Weifeng (Gordon) Zhang, Nathaniel R. Mollica, Michael D. Fox, Anne L. Cohen

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters · DOI: 10.1029/2025gl120406

Matched topics: marine heatwave

Sea‐level rise (SLR) alters nearshore hydrodynamics, yet its influence on coral reef thermal regimes under climate‐driven ocean warming remains poorly quantified. Using a fully coupled hydrodynamic–wave model validated at Palmyra Atoll, we isolate how SLR modifies temperature variability during a projected 2050 marine heatwave. Results show that while basin‐scale warming raises reef bottom temperatures broadly, SLR deepens shallow habitats and enhances tidal exchange, reducing daily and maximum temperatures by more than 0.5°C across 16% of reef area. Heat budget analysis reveals that SLR shifts the balance between advective and surface flux terms, damping thermal extremes through increased water volume and flow. These results identify physical feedback between SLR and ocean warming that modulates heat accumulation in shallow tropical systems, providing a mechanism for localized thermal buffering amid global ocean warming.

Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Lake Ice Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere

Authors: Yu Cai, Yao Xiao, Xiaoyi Shen, Haili Li, Chang‐Qing Ke

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters · DOI: 10.1029/2025gl120938

Matched topics: river

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can rapidly alter regional hydrothermal conditions and directly affect lake ice. This study presents the first assessment of AR impacts on lake ice phenology across the Northern Hemisphere. AR events were associated with positive anomalies in temperature, rainfall, and snowfall, as well as negative anomalies in solar radiation. These climate anomalies showed significant correlations with lake ice phenology. Between 1951 and 2022, AR‐associated climate anomalies explained on average 20%, 33%, and 30% of the long‐term variations in ice‐on, ice‐off, and ice duration, respectively, with stronger effects on North American lakes than on Eurasian lakes. Temperature anomalies contributed approximately half of the total explanatory power. Furthermore, extreme lake ice events corresponded closely to the frequency and intensity of AR events. These results indicate that ARs play a significant role in driving interannual variability in lake ice phenology across the Northern Hemisphere.

Escalating Compound Drought‐Heatwaves and Demographic Shifts Threaten Simultaneous Global Breadbasket Failures

Authors: Amitesh Sabut, Ashok Mishra

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters · DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118650

Matched topics: drought

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events pose a major threat to agricultural sectors worldwide. This study quantifies projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of CDHW events across major breadbasket regions. Historical CDHW occurrences (1982–2019) are compared with future projections (2020–2095) derived from eight CMIP6 climate models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. Results indicate significant increases in CDHW characteristics, particularly in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain and Central United States, where frequency and duration of events are expected to rise. High‐stress CDHW events affecting over 30% of global breadbasket regions are projected to become more common, with multiple (three or more) breadbaskets experiencing simultaneous stress, especially in Central Europe, North China, and the Indo‐Gangetic Plain later this century. Demographic shifts and rising food import dependency amplify global food security risks. The results emphasize the need for adaptive strategies to protect agriculture, supply chains, and future food security.

Glacial dysoxia in the deep subpolar North Atlantic during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

Authors: Iván Hernández-Almeida, Francisco Javier Sierro, Gabriel M. Filippelli, Antje H. L. Voelker, Paula Diz

Journal: Nature Communications · DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-71268-4

Matched topics: Pleistocene

The transition from 41-kyr to 100-kyr climate cycles during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1250–700 kyr), occurred in the absence of any significant shift in orbital forcing. The increase of carbon storage in the deep ocean between Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 24–22 has been suggested as a main internal factor leading to the transition to 100-kyr glacial cycles. We present sedimentary redox proxies and benthic foraminifera assemblages that demonstrate persistent dysoxic conditions during the MPT at IODP Site U1314 (subpolar North Atlantic). During glacials between 940 and 870 kyr, benthic foraminifera species typical of high porewater oxygen concentration disappeared, and concentrations of manganese oxides and reactive phosphorus mineral phases, both influenced by redox state, showed reductions exceeding 50%. Here, we show that higher freshwater supply associated with ice-rafted delivery caused a reduction in deep-water convection, decreasing bottom-water oxygenation and favoring carbon storage in the subpolar North Atlantic during the MPT.

Statistics

Metric	Count
Journals searched	11
Total papers fetched	93
Passed deterministic filter	13
After LLM relevance filtering	7
Rejected (not relevant)	6

Papers by journal

Journal	Papers
Nature Geoscience	1
Geophysical Research Letters	5
Nature Communications	1

Filtering Criteria

Topics: hydrology, hydrologic model, river, runoff, streamflow, reservoir, water management, flood, drought, seasonal, land surface model, climate change, hydropower, surface water, irrigation, earth system model, estuary, coastal, freshwater discharge, river plume, ocean biogeochemistry, marine heatwave, paleohydrology, paleoclimate, Quaternary, Holocene, Pleistocene, fluvial geomorphology, river terrace, loess, drainage network, river capture, landscape evolution, luminescence dating

Fields: engineering, environmental science, computer science, geology, geography